Short version. October has no reliable edge in these markets. The average October return of the stocks is positive for the S&P 500 (+1.3%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1.2%), close to zero for Europe, Italy, Germany and Australia, and negative for the FTSE 100 (−0.5%). No market was up in more than 6 of the 10 Octobers. The averages are driven by a few years: 2022 was up in every market, while 2018 and 2023 were down in every market.
Average October, by market
For each stock, the return from the September close to the October close, averaged over the years it traded. Then averaged across the stocks of each market.
| Market | Stocks | Avg October | Median stock | Stocks up on average | Avg hit rate | Up years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500SPY | 99 | +1.29% | +1.09% | 73% | 52% | 5 of 10 |
| Nasdaq 100QQQ | 99 | +1.25% | +1.15% | 66% | 51% | 5 of 10 |
| Euro Stoxx 50EZU | 46 | +0.65% | +0.42% | 67% | 55% | 6 of 10 |
| DAX 40EWG | 40 | -0.12% | +0.29% | 60% | 50% | 6 of 10 |
| FTSE MIBEWI | 40 | +0.23% | +0.90% | 72% | 51% | 6 of 10 |
| FTSE 100EWU | 100 | -0.52% | -0.36% | 39% | 48% | 4 of 10 |
| Australia 50EWA | 50 | +0.10% | -0.10% | 48% | 48% | 4 of 10 |
Median stock = median of the per-stock October averages. Stocks up on average = share of stocks whose average October is positive. Avg hit rate = average share of Octobers in which a stock rose. Up years = Octobers in which the equal-weighted market return was positive.
Year by year
Equal-weighted average October return of the stocks in each market, in percent.
| October | S&P 500 | Nasdaq 100 | Euro Stoxx 50 | DAX 40 | FTSE MIB | FTSE 100 | Australia 50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -1.1 | -2.6 | +2.9 | +1.1 | +5.7 | -0.1 | -2.7 |
| 2017 | +2.7 | +4.2 | +2.6 | +4.0 | -0.5 | +1.9 | +5.2 |
| 2018 | -6.1 | -8.4 | -4.7 | -6.2 | -9.7 | -6.4 | -5.7 |
| 2019 | +2.6 | +3.9 | +1.3 | +2.4 | +2.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | -2.3 | -1.4 | -5.7 | -6.5 | -6.8 | -2.2 | +2.8 |
| 2021 | +5.8 | +6.7 | +5.1 | +2.6 | +2.6 | +1.6 | -0.7 |
| 2022 | +10.9 | +7.5 | +8.1 | +7.8 | +9.4 | +4.2 | +6.1 |
| 2023 | -2.2 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -5.4 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -3.0 |
| 2024 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -3.3 | -3.6 | +0.1 | -2.8 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | +2.2 | +3.6 | +3.0 | +1.6 | +1.7 | +3.3 | -1.2 |
| Average | +1.2 | +0.9 | +0.7 | -0.2 | +0.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 |
Ten observations per market: a single year can move the average by a full point. The Average row weights each year equally, so it differs slightly from the per-stock average above, where stocks with longer history count for more years. Excluding 2022, the average October of the S&P 500 falls from +1.2% to +0.1% and that of the Nasdaq 100 from +0.9% to +0.2%.
Strongest and weakest stocks
Average October return per stock, showing the three highest and three lowest in each market. Only stocks with at least eight Octobers of history are included.
| Market | Strongest Octobers | Weakest Octobers |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | GM +6.8%, NFLX +6.4%, TSLA +5.1% | META -4.0%, TXN -2.9%, IBM -2.5% |
| Nasdaq 100 | NFLX +6.4%, TER +6.1%, TSLA +5.1% | EBAY -6.1%, META -4.0%, MCHP -3.2% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | LIN.DE +8.6%, STLAM.MI +4.8%, BBVA.MC +4.5% | PHIA.AS -5.5%, BAYN.DE -4.8%, DB1.DE -3.5% |
| DAX 40 | AIR.DE +3.8%, MTX.DE +3.4%, DBK.DE +3.2% | FME.DE -6.4%, BAYN.DE -4.8%, ADS.DE -4.4% |
| FTSE MIB | STLAM.MI +4.8%, SPM.MI +3.5%, BPE.MI +2.8% | BMPS.MI -16.7%, TIT.MI -2.9%, INW.MI -2.6% |
| FTSE 100 | IAG.L +4.9%, RR.L +4.8%, BARC.L +3.6% | BAB.L -6.5%, SN.L -6.2%, JD.L -5.4% |
| Australia 50 | LYC.AX +4.7%, NST.AX +4.6%, CBA.AX +2.8% | WTC.AX -4.0%, SIG.AX -2.2%, BXB.AX -1.9% |
Individual-stock averages are very dispersed and rest on eight to ten observations each. They describe the past, they are not a screen.
How to read this
Method. Prices are daily, adjusted for dividends and splits, from Yahoo Finance in local currency, September 2016 to September 2026. October return = last close of October divided by last close of September, minus one. The market figures are simple averages across the stocks (equal weight); the benchmark ETF of each market is not part of them.
Limits. Members are the current constituents of each index, taken back in time, so the history carries survivorship bias. Some stocks have fewer than ten years of data, and a few tickers could not be downloaded. Ten Octobers is a small sample and includes the 2018 sell-off, 2020 and 2022, so a seasonal pattern cannot be told apart from those episodes with this data. These are research notes, not recommendations.
Research material only — not personalized financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results. Contact: domderrico@gmail.com.