Every Portfolio Lower, and Three Rotations That Undo the Previous Week
The August 21 update reverses the previous one almost point for point. A week ago six of seven Mosaic portfolios beat their benchmark; this time all seven closed lower and only Nasdaq100 finished ahead of its index. Benchmarks were mixed, between -2.41% and +1.65%. Hedge levels rose in six markets, and three of the four rotations reversed decisions taken seven days earlier.
USA100 lost 3.50% against a benchmark decline of 1.37%, giving back most of the previous week gain. MRK entered the portfolio in place of GEV, and the benchmark hedge rose to 8.92%.
Nasdaq100 was the only portfolio to outperform, declining 1.42% while its benchmark fell 2.41%. It was also the only market to keep both its selection and its hedge broadly unchanged, at 12.65%.
The widest relative gaps opened in Europe. Germany40 fell 3.20% while its benchmark was essentially flat at 0.09%, with no rotation. Europe50 lost 3.40% against -0.69%, and Italy40 declined 2.44% versus -0.57%, its hedge climbing to 14.15%, the second highest in the group.
UK100 and Australia50 held up better in absolute terms, losing 0.81% and 0.27%, but both lagged benchmarks that gained ground — 1.41% and 1.65% respectively. Australia50 rotated into SOL.AX, replacing MQG.AX, and was the only market where the hedge eased.
Compact Weekly Dashboard
| Market | Current Tickers | Rotation | Hedge | Portfolio | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA100 | MU, CAT, FDX, CSCO, MRK | In: MRK Out: GEV | 8.92% | -3.50% | -1.37% |
| Nasdaq100 | MU, MRVL, ON, CSCO, ROST | No change | 12.65% | -1.42% | -2.41% |
| Europe50 | NOKIA.HE, ASML.AS, ENI.MI, ENGI.PA, BAYN.DE | In: BAYN.DE Out: IFX.DE | 11.87% | -3.40% | -0.69% |
| Germany40 | IFX.DE, ENR.DE, RWE.DE, BAYN.DE, DHL.DE | No change | 12.33% | -3.20% | 0.09% |
| Italy40 | STMMI.MI, SPM.MI, ENI.MI, BPE.MI, PST.MI | In: PST.MI Out: PRY.MI | 14.15% | -2.44% | -0.57% |
| UK100 | CCC.L, GLEN.L, PCT.L, SDR.L, BEZ.L | In: BEZ.L Out: BGEO.L | 8.86% | -0.81% | 1.41% |
| Australia50 | BHP.AX, WOW.AX, WDS.AX, QBE.AX, SOL.AX | In: SOL.AX Out: MQG.AX | 17.28% | -0.27% | 1.65% |
Three Round Trips in a Single Week
The previous update noted two positions that had reversed after seven days, and flagged that such short round trips usually mean several candidates sit close together in the ranking rather than a genuine change in trend. This week the same thing happened on three markets at once, and in each case the rotation restored exactly the holding that had been dropped.
| Market | August 14 | August 21 | Net effect over two weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe50 | In IFX.DE / Out BAYN.DE | In BAYN.DE / Out IFX.DE | None |
| Italy40 | In PRY.MI / Out PST.MI | In PST.MI / Out PRY.MI | None |
| UK100 | In BGEO.L / Out BEZ.L | In BEZ.L / Out BGEO.L | None |
The net effect of six rotations across two weeks is that these three portfolios now hold exactly what they held on August 7. Turnover of this kind carries real transaction costs while producing no change in exposure, and it is a pattern worth monitoring rather than acting on.
Portfolio Message
Four consecutive weeks now alternate in sign: the portfolios lagged on July 31, led on August 7, held an edge on August 14, and lagged broadly this week. That alternation is the expected signature of concentrated five-stock selections, and it is the reason a single weekly reading matters far less than the direction over several months.
The more informative detail this week is not the performance but the churn. Rising hedge levels in six markets, combined with three rotations that cancelled themselves out, point to a ranking in which the leading candidates are closely bunched. That is a defensive configuration, not a directional one.
This weekly update is research material only and is not personalized financial advice.
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